A second-order Monte Carlo simulation model to describe coagulase-positive Staphylococci growth in mayonnaise served in Algerian pizzerias

To bridge the data gap on food poisoning caused by coagulase-positive staphylococci (CoPS), especially related to mayonnaise sauce served at Algerian pizzerias, this study aimed assess concentration of CoPS in and probability exceeding a critical ≥ 5 log CFU/g. The city Ain Témouchent West Algeria was taken as case study. A probabilistic assessment model built, taking into account initial contamination freshly made potential growth before serving. Uncertainty variability were integrated separately model. came from lack fitting error, natural heterogeneity biological materials (e.g., microbial strains) temperature during cold storage. second-order Monte Carlo procedure implemented R using mc2d package. following pieces generated populate model: enumerated characterized 57 samples pizzeria city; challenge tests 23 °C performed three isolates. existing also gathered: meteorological analysed build realistic scenario storage, while set 43 35 values minimal maximal limits CoPS, respectively, collected literature inform secondary predictive describing rate various storage conditions. sensitivity analysis facilitate interpretation results. results revealed prevalence 25% [15%; 37%] with concentrations varying 0.4 [0.3; 0.9] 2.9 [2.4; 3.0] rates °C, based mayonnaise, had median value estimated be 1.41 [1.17; 1.65] h − 1 . Concentration levels according scenarios serving conditions calculated. For instance, after refrigerated display counter for 14 hottest months year zero. However, 95th percentile 3.6 [2.9; 4.2] In scenario, CFU/g 1% [0.3%; 2%], which is low but not negligible. These findings could used improve safety policies develop risk management strategy reduce associated consumption ready-to-use foods fast restaurants.